Why sports betting tips from tipsters cannot be trusted!

Why sports betting tips from tipsters cannot be trusted!

so professional punters pundits tipsters
don’t you just love them? NO we don’t because most of them are wrong
ill-informed and they always miss off the most vital piece of information that
you need if you’re going to make money when betting if you want to find out
what that is then watch the rest of this video if you’re interested in learning
to trade on Betfair then visit the BET Angel Academy where you have detailed
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don’t forget to subscribe to our You Tube channel and click on the bell icon
if you want notification of new videos as they’re released so when you’re
looking at betting on a variety of different sports or whatever event you
want to the Royal baby named politics you can bet on pretty much everything
nowadays and there’s one defining characteristic that you should be
looking at that will determine whether you have a good bet or not but you know
there’s plenty of advice available so why not take some of that you’ve got
people betting on football you’ve got people betting on racing you got
tipsters coming out of your ears and you’ve got pundits giving you advice on
which team they think is going to win or not but there is one critical thing that
you need to take account of and it’s something that I use all of the time I
bet trade gambled I do many different types of things but there’s like a core
that runs through all of my activity that determines whether I profit over
the long term and I have profited over the long term
so I do know what I’m talking about here however when I look at tipsters whether
they’re racing tipsters football tipsters just any type of tipster so
whether they’re tipping a KERS or whatever I always see this one piece of
information missing you never see it and this is why I think tipping is
completely wrong it’s gone completely way off of where it needs to be but you
know we can sort of look at this and say well actually you know it does serve a
particular purpose however for whom is my big question here because you tune in
to a football match and I say right so who’s gonna win then and the fact is
that you can never tell definitively who is actually going to win a sports event
it’s a graduation of possibilities from never going to win to quite likely to
win and you know odd and strange things can happen but likewise you know the
nailed on thing doesn’t necessarily is going to win it’s it’s there’s never a
black-and-white answer but everybody wants a black-and-white answer that’s
what satisfies people you know and you get it very often it if you see somebody
summarizing they say well what do you think of the chances of so-and-so and
they say well you know if it’s a horse they say well he ran wild last week he’s
gone up in trip Iggy I think he’s gonna quite like this distance hasn’t run for
26 days so they’re building this pattern of activity in terms of where they think
and why they think this horse could win this particular race and then they will
come to conclusions so I think it’s got a fair chance it is a phrase that you’ll
often hear wheeled out or in a football match that you know the pundits will
summarize a variety of different things but generally what tends to happen is
that the summarizer are the anchor of that particular segment of the program
or whatever will always say so do you think it’s gonna win so who should you
put your money on to win the tournament Peter Webb managing director of bet
angel joins us now Maurice chances then what do you think and that’s what people
tend to bet on people tend to go out there and say I’ll have a tenner on this
I’ll have a tenner on that I’ll stick a fiver on there I’ll have a monkey on the
following on the following event the following sports sports person team
horse or whatever but the problem is that’s where it all starts to fall down
so people are justifying this huge spread of things that will mean that
this is more or less likely which is great you know we do need that
information to be able to place a profitable bet into the market however
they are missing lots of critical bits of information
because you know if we see a team at the top of a football league playing a team
at the bottom are they gonna win yeah most likely but does that represent a
good bet we don’t know because we need to know what the price is
and we also need to know the chance of that actually occurring and that you
know therefore there’s one characteristic that underlines
everything that you do whenever you place a bet that it should be critically
important to you now somebody asked me this question in January when I was in
Dublin I turned up to do a quick half an hour slot at an event that was taking
place in Dublin and somebody did ask me one of the most sensible questions that
I’ve been asked for ages and I gave them the most sensible answer that I could
possibly give let’s have a quick listen to the question and the answer that I
gave now I’m joined by Peter Webb angel a betting forum here today in rapid time
Peter what’s the best advice that you have for a punter generally to get the
best price that you can and I think it doesn’t matter what research you’ve done
however you’ve done it if you can’t get the best price then you’ll never make
money so try and get a good price whenever you have decided on your pick
so yeah price was what I was interested in and the funny thing about most
betting markets is that punters the average Joe gambler just doesn’t ask
what the right price is they just go with their gut and then place a bets
based upon whether they think somebody is going to win or not or some team or
something is going to happen and that’s what a lot of the pundits and the
tipsters are feeding offers as well they’re basically saying this is going
to win because this can’t win because now the fact is that in this day and age
you know you can have a bet of reasonable prices at a lot of different
places but you also do have the advantage of being able to back Orlais
so in fact your judgement transforms itself nowadays so if somebody says
these are the odds that we’re offering you or the market is offering you on an
exchange you can decide whether you wants to back or lay it it’s perfectly
possible for you to look at either of those so it’s like the team at the top
of the division are playing the team at the bottom and you can back them at 105
or you know very very heavy yards on in traditional fractional odds
does that represent Valley well you have to say well how often is that going to
occur because you know if this match was played a hundred times how many times
with that team go on to win this match it’s quite possible that in the odd
match it may not happen for some reason they get two red cards very quickly
within the match which decimates their team there’s a serious injury there’s a
fluke eagle the ref decides bizarrely toward two penalties that shouldn’t have
been awarded so if you look at playing the match a hundred times over some of
those things are going to occur albeit not very often and out of that comes the
price at which is worth backing however if you listen to the football channels
and where people are offering out betting tips they generally won’t
encapsulate that people I’ve come to the conclusion after many years of doing
this professionally that people just cannot grasp the concept of
probabilities our minds i’ve been created over hundreds of thousand years
to think in binary outcomes it’s like this creature is gonna eat me it isn’t
has now transformed into this team is going to win they’re not it’s very
difficult to get those gray areas in place but that’s exactly what you need
to be profitable so you’re giving odds you think that this team is going to win
it’s not going to be really an issue but what what odds are you being offered so
if you go into a betting exchange and you see odds of two then if you do 1/2
that’s basically saying that you’re going to this event is going to occur
50% of the time so if you think the event is going to occur more than 50% of
the time you can back it and if it’s below 50% of the time you think it’s
going to occur then you can lay it you can basically profit in either direction
you can make a judgement on every single price that you see on the exchange now
the way that I do it is I think that there’s a natural variability within the
market and that’s in terms of odds and in terms of the outcome of the actual
event itself so what I’m looking for is I’m not looking inside that natural
variability I’m looking for things that are well outside of that so I I see
something that I know has got a 50% chance of winning but the markets thinks
it’s only got a 20% chance of winning there’s a 30% margin of error there for
me and I will bet on that absolutely guaranteed if I bet on that I may not
win on this occasion but if I do it a hundred times I’m gonna
end out ahead so where tipsters are going wrong and pundits and all of these
other people is they’re not pinning a probability on the chance of something
happening and you’re sort of saying well I don’t understand probability I’m not
interested in that that’s fine because that’s not necessarily your job if
you’re receiving advice from a tipster from a punter from from a professional
punter or a pundit what they should be able to do is tell you if there’s value
there and they should be able to nail that value for you as well so one of the
things that I’ve learned over a very long period of time is you can find
value but the problem that you have is because of this variability it’s
possible you may go on a string of bad results before it starts to turn up in
fact if I show you a strategy that I started fairly recently I’ll I’ll take a
chunk of it and I’ll show you how that variability works out because what
you’ll notice is I know I was betting to value because I’ve modeled this
particular sport unbelievably well so I can nail the chance of something
occurring on this the chance of a win on this sport like down to the nth degree
down to 400 decimal places just like saturation there but basically I know
that there’s a certain amount of sort of wiggle room that I have to have within
that particular model so it could be that I’d perform this action but because
of the chance that I’m betting against has a certain amount of variability in
it may go against me in the short term so what you actually see on this graph
is it starts off I Cameron if it was positive or negative immediately but
basically it goes through a long negative run and then suddenly all of
those results start to come in and it swings positive now the longer I run
this model the more I bet to this particular model the more money I’ll
make over the longer term but I have to accept that it’s going to have ups and
downs swings all over the place so this is why when tipsters tip a horse or a
pundit says something about a football match or anybody writes any article
about anything you should nominate a price at which you’re willing to back or
laugh you should say this is the chance that it has of winning this particular
race this particular event and therefore I will not back it below this amount or
I will back it above this amount because you’re accounting for that
ability if you’re if you take your margins too tight then you could go bust
because the market will swing up and down against you but over the long term
it basically ends up positive but if you have very small margins and it swings
against you you could blow your bank completely so when a tipster tips
something or a pundit in a football match says that they think that they’re
going to win what they should be saying it’s never going to happen I can tell
you that but what they should be saying is I like Manchester United tonight and
I think they’ve got a 75% chance of winning and therefore I’m willing to
back them above this price or if we see a horse that comes out it’s like I like
this horse it likes the ground the going is going to suit it today it’s stepping
up in Tripp and it should have improved from its last outing then what should
happen is they shouldn’t say and therefore it’s dick a tenner on it they
should say and therefore I think it’s got an 80% chance of winning this match
they’re at this match this brace but the markets pricing it only at a 50% chance
and therefore I think this represents a great bet but of course that’s not going
to happen it’s not immediate enough it’s not thrilling enough it’s not exciting
enough people won’t do that if I went on to I could probably go on to a
particular channel of some sort and say to them this would be the chance of this
occurring it does not make for great television however if you go on and say
oh yeah you know I really fancy this one it’s the price is crashing in it’s
stepping up and trip and therefore you know I’m gonna have my money on this
horse that’s exciting and entertaining and that’s what drives people to to
place a bet within the industry it’s called
bet stimulus that’s what people are trying to do on the sell side of the
industry from a bookmaker a sports book or whatever they’re trying to stimulate
you to place a bet but what they won’t do is actually give you the chance I
hope this thing occurring because if they did you’d realize that you were
going to lose money over the long term anyhow so yeah I think that you know
what I would love to see as I’d love to see betting tipsters and punters and all
of the people within in industry actually now
their predictions with a percentage probability however I don’t think that
that is ever going to happen simply because a lot of people are going on gut
feel they don’t have a model in place and therefore they don’t know where the
value is because yes it may win but it may have wanted a bad price or yes it
has you know it could win but it could win at a good price and there’s a big
difference between the two because I focus on price price price price price
price price price price price that’s what I’m most interested in it’s no good
winning frequently if I’m not getting value out of that because over the long
term my P&L is going to head off in the wrong direction but if I can get a
decent price on something then I definitely will win money over the
longer term so the next time you place a bet that’s where you focus on focus on
the value focus on the price if you don’t think of the price is big enough
and you know whatever you’re doing suggests that that is the case then you
simply don’t place of it you’re under no obligation to place a bet and to try and
make money you can just wait for the right price to come along and when you
see it you just jump on it and take full advantage of it that’s what I do it’s
made me a lot of money over a long period of time and you can do the same
so the only way to profit in the long term is to know what chance something
has of happening and then to find odds that represent value any professional
punter tipster or pundit should be able to give you that particular price if
they don’t then they don’t know what the value will be and their tip is worthless

34 thoughts on “Why sports betting tips from tipsters cannot be trusted!

  1. True you can’t trust anyone but a good tipster has records how often they hit I had a guy hit from 14 he gave me 13 lay wins

  2. As stupid as it sounds it took me a long time to get my head around this concept. I kept hearing people talk about value and thought what the hell are you talking about? surely only the outcome is important. How naive I was.

  3. Is there any books where I can read up on finding price as there must be some sort off guide line , it makes sense but also may take balls to bet on a good losing team or late on in a game , maybe .

  4. Good video Peter thanks, to be fair to the pundits on racing uk/sky sports racing they do say quite often I like this horse but price is far to short

  5. I assume that was a a football strategy, am i right? May i ask, how many bets took it tu turn profitable? Thanks

  6. Professional Tipsters are few and far between and if you find a good one you can LEARN a lot from them. Pundits and Presenters haven't got a fucking clue, I'd ignore everything they say. There is no way on your strategy results graph that you didn't change the fundamentals in the back ground to get into profit. Value in betting is hugely important. This is why/when the Exchange come into themselves. If a horse is 2.5 at the off you can ask for 4 0 In Running and if it gets matched and wins that's real value. Why your average punter doesn't use the exchange is beyond me. Good video.

  7. There are websites like Tipstr but its a bit of a trick. Just because somebody looks like a good tipster recently, it is likely a fluke. They could be the best for the last 3 months and the worst for the next 3 months.

  8. Lol i had a nhl tipper once he was shocking lost like 2 outta 20 i eventully used him.to put my lay bets on he made me a lot lol

  9. I agree with what you are saying Peter, but it's unfair to group every single tipster into that category. Although I will admit most tipsters will fall into that category that you described, so it's a hard industry to gain trust in. I will add in one thing that I believe you didn't mention, apologies if you did mention it but the liquidity is also a big part of being a good tipster. There's no point in giving a tip when the available liquidity is only say $1,000. Let's say you email that to 100 people, the liquidity will be gone before 10 of those subscribers will be able to place a bet. Also important that the tipster finds out his clients staking sizes so he can cap the clients list to avoid available liquidity issues. As you mentioned, this is boring and not attractive for punters. For me, that's fine. I don't want those types of subscribers. Some of us are good guys that do give information about rated prices and expected Profit on Turnover and look after our subscribers to make a profit. But unfortunately, I think we are well and truly outnumbered.

  10. Yet another great video. I am a Betfair trader. I listen to William hill radio which every day will have 2 guests providing selections for every race. Some of those guests are pro punters and they do actually talk a lot about value (and will even have a go WH prices!!). You often here "A is the likeliest winner, but B offers the best value" Or "there is no value in this market as the price on X has gone". Value is where it is at.

  11. To become a football tipster you should treat it like a niche. Either pick one league or one country or even one team. Set yourself a target for at least 5 to 10 points profit per month from level stakes. Hardly rocket science if you put the work in. It's all about balance, control and discipline with sticking to single bets.

  12. Just getting the "best price you can" is not enough. You need to 1st figure out the "true odds" , once you know this figure (not guess) , then you can go ahead and back or lay above/below the "true odds".

  13. Great video, I used to do really well at Point to Point meetings, and horse racing in general (before the exchanges) by simply backing the horses who were too big a price…… I used try to explain this to people, that successful betting is NOT about picking winners, it just went over their heads and they just continued backing the "form" horses at any price, which of course was great news for me!!!
    Sadly betting at Points is a pale shadow of its former self, still happy memories..

  14. Hi Peter, This question isn't related to this video, however, due to work commitments I have been exploring doing some trades 'anti-post' with relatively small amounts. My question is, will Betfair remove the funds from my account at the time of the trade, which by the way is what I expect to be so, or do they only remove the funds just prior to the race, thereby only drawing on extra funds if absolutely necessary? Sorry if this is Kindergarten stuff to you, but a newbie here, and I was taught the only stupid question is the one you don't ask. Thanks Mike

  15. Hello! I'm interested in the program because I do not have a function that geekstoy. I mean I need to make a high fee entry and exit automatically, but the problem is that geekstoy works with stop, I do not want to work with stop I want the market to take me out of the bet, but I need to leave. This function is in geekstoy, but the only problem that works with stop. I want to know if your program has this function, I wish I had no stop

    Sorry for my bad English

  16. I always think they're trying to get loads backing a horse they like so the price goes in their favour

  17. and this is why only 1% of gamblers make a long term profit, and im guess those (im not one) have trouble not getting there acounts closed

  18. Indeed, it's a big misconception about sports betting; considering sides before prices. Hey Peter do you include bookmaker margin into your model probabilities whenever you find value or discrepancy?

  19. ''I think it has a fair chance''. = The bookmaker price is fair. (It isn't but I have a media career and I need their goodwill)

  20. Value is determined by opinion, and the only way you know if your opinion is obtaining value is long term. You may think an individual bet is value but that will only form part of a series of bets, but you will only know if you have beaten the market over time…Work out your strike rate against the average price of your winning selections, for example if you have a 20% strike rate and the average winning price works out at 8/1 you are betting value…..At all times the question to yourself is at what price would i back this horse?
    The hardest thing is how do you come to that opinion and how do you put a price to it, even if you can do these 2 things sustaining it over a long period isn't easy.
    To try and win must be a long term view, to have any successful strategy, selection process, etc it can only be built on the flaws of others knowledge on that.
    By definition any approach that becomes widespread will fail. The betting market is a good predictor of performance, but it is in no way a literal representation of each animals "chances" of victory.
    Rather than a literal assessment of probability, the market is a model of the collective views of the betting masses.

  21. There is a difference between a tipster who does it for a living and then somebody employed to be a pundit on tv having to give a tip on either every race or the spur of the moment. I know which one I'd trust, the one who's done the research and is selective

  22. There is a glut of accumulator tipsters on facebook who are of course just affiliate marketeers , I cant believe the amount of people who opt in and place a bet with the bookmaker they advise, of course the marketeers make money regardless of the results, most people are very stupid.

  23. Most professional writers working for racing channels etc are very clear about price and whether the horse is a ‘value’ proposition. People have been writing about ‘value’ and publishing books on the subject for decades.

  24. To say you never hear this spoken about , I'm surprised.
    On the Racing Channel the pundits often say " i think it will win " , but , add " i wouldn't bet on it at that price " etc . Also tipsters such as Hugh Taylor base their whole service on " value ". So , to summarise , it is talked about a lot.

  25. getting a good tip has so little if any to do with the prices you are able to get in the market. a tip is a tip, a tip is not saying bet only with this bookie, or otherwise my bet wont be good LOL
    no 2 are you trying to deliver the idea that betting is based on percantages and nothing is 100%? you made me smile, sir. everyone knows that. also im pretty sure 90% or more of people watching this already know what VALUE is
    if i get a tip from a punter who says team A will win, i will never ever thinking of terms ''hes saying that 100% this team will win'' if it would be like that ( a ''fixed'' match ) everyone knowing would bet his house obviously

  26. look at the house the local bookmaker lives in look at your own. people say just won so much at bookies bookies dont start with money you have won of other peoples losses look at las vegas built on the back of losers only way to win hasnt been invented yet ability to look into future then you would still be at a loss bookies wouldnt exsist

  27. Peter I find your videos very helpful but I do wish you would get to the point. You tend to tell us the same thing three, four or five times before getting to the crux of the matter.

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