Daily Fantasy Sports MLB STRATEGY #1⚾️ ROSTER Construction, VALUE PLAYS Baseball, DraftKings MLB DFS

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB STRATEGY #1⚾️ ROSTER Construction, VALUE PLAYS Baseball, DraftKings MLB DFS

– Hopefully you caught the beginner tips, cause now I’m going to
tell you how to play MLB on Draft kings and fan goal like a pro, as part one of this advanced
fantasy baseball series and we’re starting right now. (lightning theme sounds) – What’s up, guys? Joe Holka here. Welcome to another daily fantasy
sports and betting video. If this is your first time here, and you want to become a
profitable Draft kings player and get better at betting, start now by subscribing to the channel. Make sure you click that
notification bell so you don’t miss anything along the way. If you’re already a Holkamaniac
you know what to do, smash that like button
and we’ll get started. Some sports there’s
definitely certain positions, where it makes sense to pay down, and I wanted to know if baseball
was one of those sports. (lightning theme sounds) – Let’s talk a little
bit about what you think, is more of of an optimal line
of construction for GVPs. Like, I think that the one off thing, I’m with you, it’s usually
one side or the other, but is there specific positions, where you get your salary relief? I guess we should probably talk about, the SP2 on draft things
a little bit as well. – Yeah, I think that a lot of times, you do want to use that SP2 to try to find some salary relief, and often times you
want that player to be, you know a little bit
of a volatile option. In general the way, the
easiest way and quickest way, to assess starting pitching, is you should be thinking
about it in terms of projected strikeouts
divided by salaries spent. That is the quickest way to decipher whether that’s a good play or not. Sometimes, you’ll run into players that aren’t very good pitchers, but they can miss pads. Guys like, I’m thinking like Chad Cool or at points last year like Tyler Glasgow. Guys who might not work in the games, but if everything breaks right for them, and their priced in the 6Ks, you could get seven,
eight, nine strikeouts. And those guys, while
they’re not going to hit, at a consistent rate, because they have like
wild, uh you know arsenals, they are guys that are often going to be, you know, when they do hit,
up near the top of GPP. Robby Ray was a guy that was consistent like that for a few years. Then he sort of became more
of the higher priced version as he honed his skills. Um but things like that are,
are opportunities that you want to kinda take advantage of um because uh strike out per dollar spent
is one of the easiest ways to like, kinda build an
upside in your lineups. Then, other positions that I think you can find sources of salary relief on, it’s, it’s a little
different in the sense that, there’s some positions that because there’s not a lot of opportunity
cost of the position, you can get out of that
position with salary relief and not feel bad about it. A lot of times that’s the catchers spot, sometimes it’s a middle infield spot, but then, a lot of
times there’s also value in terms of outfielders because there might just be an
outfielder who, like, moves around in terms of line up and gets a better line up spot. There’s not necessarily
just one way to play it, in terms of the value
that you’re looking for, from a positional basis but I think for pitchers it’s pretty straight forward that you’re looking for
strikeouts per dollar spent. – Yeah I’m with you on
the pitcher side of thing, because I like to look at it so, I don’t really care if I lose in baseball, for a couple days, I don’t really care if I lose in baseball, for even a couple weeks. Like, if I’m playing baseball, I’m going to be playing it
for the larger sample anyway, so I want those spikes from
somebody whose cheaper SP2s, as you were saying. So I think maybe attacking a little more, middle of it more, kind
of range of outcomes, on the higher end for some
of those cheaper guys, makes some sense from a
strikeout perspective, for sure. – I think one of the biggest
mistakes you can make, is to get into a rut with, everyday I’m going to punt
my catcher and shortstop. I get that question all the time, what position should I punt? No, it’s different everyday. Don’t, don’t settle into,
catcher’s the place to punt. Everyday is different. – Literally the most
popular question I got, on twitter to ask you guys is, what positions do we punt? My initial instinct was
exactly what you said, every slate’s going to be different. Even in NFL, like, you
can’t get in the habit of, just saying I’m going to play at, man priced tie down every single slate, because then you’re
just going to miss out, on value that arises for sure, and some of the better plays, and better match-ups. – Just Joe too, to cut in, I mean, with baseball typically you see you have your power positions, you know. First base, left field, third base, those are typically the spots where just, because of the nature of the position, the guys who play the position, you’re going to probably
spend a little more money. It is definetly slate specific but, a lot of times you’ll probably,
if I had to venture a guess, you’re probably going to
pay down a short stop, a little bit just because again, the nature of the position there, it’s more of a defensive
first position typically. We do have guys like Machado and DeeDee, with the Yankees and guys like that but short stops definitely if I, if I had a pie chart of positions I’ve paid down last year, short stops probably up there. As wells as, especially on fandle, usually we get some random, 2K outfielder batting lead off. Usually you can find some value there , in one of your outfield spots. It comes back opportunity costs as well. (lightning theme sounds) – By the way guys if you ever found value, in any of my videos or live streams, one of the best ways you can
support what I’m doing here, for free is to give me a
follow over on twitter. If you’re into the community, I also do a ton of content, exclusive only to Instagram so, if you have a few seconds
make sure you go over there, and give me the follow as well. I’d really appreciate it. So we spent a little
time on value already, but I want to dig a little
deeper into the SP2, starting pitcher two, over on Draft Kings. A lot of people have been saying, that you need to pay down there, but I want to hear a
little more about that before I totally go all in. (lightning theme sounds) – Cool so, Derek, one of
the other things I had, on our initial list here was just, looking at some line-up
construction stuff, and I know you’re a big value guy. Is there typically like a position, you see more value in than others. Like places like NFL, a lot of times, it makes sense to pay down at tight end, kinda embrace a little
bit of variance there, pay up for running back so, is there a line up construction tip, you would have for people as far as, trying to find value in certain positions. – Yeah, I mean it all depends
on the slate honestly. I guess the position that sticks out, to be the most is your SP2 on Draft Kings. That’s the spot where you can play, you know your Jason Vargas’, or last year, pretty much the entire Marlins rotation, was under-valued for most of the year. Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez, Trevor Richards, and Wei-Yin Chen. Obviously people caught on at some point. But uh, guys like that,
when they’re 5 or 6K, good match ups, and they’re
projecting for like 15 points, like there’s a ton of value there and people are afraid to play them because they’re like “oh I need
the safe pitching”, “I need to pay up for the floor”, and I just don’t think it
works that way anymore. You look at what the
sharp players are doing, and the sharp players
are playing those plays. – It’s easier to find a strikeout, than it is to predict a double, obviously. I would say more often than not, I find myself paying
up for the ace pitcher, at least one of them usually you can find, like Derek says, you
can find these nonsense, cheap, second pitchers but sometimes, not even sometimes, probably
more often than not, my bill on drafting is
something like uh, Sherser, and a you know, a Chen or a Vargas or some guy that just, you hope
he goes five decent innings and doesn’t kill you. – On Draft Kings specifically, like, how, how deep can we go at SP2? Like, how thin can we get? Are you more or less looking for guys, that have like a larger range of outcomes when you get all the way down there? Like hopefully capture
a little bit of ceiling over the longer term and maybe take a little bit more chances. – Well, it’s just, it’s
crazy to me because at SP2, like you could have a 4K guy, and he goes for ten points and, everyone’s bummed out like, “ah you need 16 points to
pay off” and everything, it’s like wait a minute,
if you had a 4K hitter, that added ten points you’d be
pretty happy with it, right? Like that wouldn’t have been a big bust. So I think that if you, you have to adjust your expectations. I think everyone’s
expectations for what your SP2, should return in terms of
points is just way off. You need to be comfortable
with taking a ten, from your pitcher, from some
of these 4K guys sometimes. And it’s like how hard
is it to get ten points, from a starting pitcher
if the pitcher’s decent? Not hard. So um, in general I think
punting SP2 um, makes sense, and um, I don’t know why
people don’t do it more. – Yeah, I think it’s an
interesting kinda discussion, to have too because to me it’s more about, like where is it, like if you’re gonna punt, what does it do to the
rest of your roster? Like what is this actually doing
for me on this given slate? (lightning theme sounds) – Before we get back at
it if you like my work, and want to support my work, the number one way you can do so for free, is by bookmarking my Amazon link. What a lot of people have been doing, is just making it their homepage, so they remember to use it
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Amazon crew with everyone else. I’ll be sure to give you a
shout out on the next video. So how do players become
actually miss priced? Like it’s easy to say all these things but in order to find
value in a lot of sports, certain things have to happen. Whether it’s news, I’m
sure there’s some sort of influence on that when it
comes to baseball as well. (lightning theme sounds) – Been a lot of people coming off of NBA, that’s kind of interesting so, as far as the news aspect of things, like how do players in
baseball become like mispriced? It seems like projections are almost more sensitive in other
sports based on news, like outside of a late pitcher change. Um, what kind of things
end up leading to value? We’ll start there I guess. – So, the types of things would be players that you know, are normally
reserved players that get, you know thrust into line up because somebody’s getting a day off and they might be mispriced because they’re reserved, or a player that you know,
usually hits low in the line up, and now is hitting high in the line up. That can change their value because, you talked about the value
of extra plate appearances. If you go down a line up, each line up spot, as
a quick rule of thumb, each line up spot is worth about 1/10th, of a plate appearance,
in terms conditional. So if you’ve got a guy
who usually hits eighth, and now he’s hitting lead off, that’s almost a full
plate appearance more. It’s three quarters of
a plate appearance more, in terms of assumed projection. So that, that’s really
meaningful points because, every plate appearance for a hitter is positive expectations because even the worst
hitters in the league, they average positive total
points for plate appearance. Things like that can change, a pitching change you know
where a team might have been scheduled to face Justin Verlander, but he gets scratched
and now it’s gonna be, a random fifth starter from
triple A or something like that. Those types of things can change stuff. Um, and then other than that,
I think early in the season, there’s a lot of stuff with weather, that’s important because
early in the MLB season, you have such different climates from different regions of the country. And so like, games in
the Northeast or Midwest, early in the season when they’re playing in temperatures in high 30s, low 40s. Those are just lower scoring
environments on the whole, compared to Texas, where
it might not be August, in Texas where it’s the hundreds, but it might be 70s or 80s, and it’s a 30, 40 degree difference. The warmer the weather, generally the better the
environment for hitting as a whole. So there’s instances
like that as well where, unusual weather patterns
can create values. In general, pricing keeps
getting more and more efficient in these games and you might not feel it necessarily in MLB
because there’s so much, variance associated with it. Um, but we on our projection back testing, we noticed about a three
percent improvement in our squared on Draft
Kings pricing last year relative to performing. – Yeah so there’s
definitely different factors that, you know aren’t really
being baked into the price, like the umpire of a given day, isn’t being baked into the price. Especially if you don’t
even know it ahead of times, a lot of times when the
prices are being set. Or which catcher is playing
pitches behind the plates. Some teams have you know,
one really good guy, and one really poor guy
so you don’t really know, which one you’re going
to get or that kind of. (lightning theme sounds) – Just a reminder if
you’re looking to invest, in yourself or take your
game to the next level, I do offer one on one coaching, so if you want a little
more information on that, make sure to head over
to JoeHolka.com/coaching. If you prefer to learn in
more of a group setting, that’s totally fine. A lot of people don’t realize though, that if they have an Amazon prime account, which a lot of people do these days, they automatically have access, to a twitch prime subscription. So with that subscription
you get access to, our premium discord chat, as well as a bunch of other
subscriber only perks. Regardless guys, I’ve said it before, but you’re doing yourself a disservice, if you aren’t heading
over to the live streams over on Twitch. So make sure you’re following me at Twitch.tv/JoeHolka so
you don’t miss anything. So, the way that DFS
landscape is these days, pricing is just getting
more and more efficient. What I was curious about is, do park shifts affect pricing, and have the sites done a good job, at adjusting from there? (lightning theme sound) – Got a different kind of
field, different stadiums. Like, I would imagine,
like you mentioned pricing has gotten sharper over recent years. Like everyone knows Coors Field, those guys are going to be priced up. Have you seen the pricing, see a significant movement for weather? Significant movement for
different park shifts? Is that something that’s changed? I feel like originally it
wasn’t that kind of correlated. – Yeah, I think it’s gotten
better on Park shifts in general. So you won’t get like a
situation where you’d have, you know a team like the Dodgers who play in a really
tough hitting environment, but then they go on the road and they’re still priced
like they were at home. You don’t see that as much anymore. So I think um, park shifts, in terms of expectation
have changed with pricing. Um, one other thing that I did not mention that can have an impact, sometimes it’s overstated, but in terms of delivering value is umpire assignments as well. That’s one of the other things that, you know, changes in MLB and umpires have a more direct hand in the results of the game in MLB than they do in NBA or NFL because they’re calling every pitch. Um, and every change and account has an impact in terms
of the expectations, so that’s another one. But yeah, I think those
are some of the scenarios where you can see price
opportunities early in season, taking advantage of weather. A lot of that stuff is
built into Vegas totals, so if you’re just kind
of looking for like, quick ways to access uh, information on better
hitting environments. You’ll see that mostly in Vegas totals, but you’ll see, like early in the season, totals in Chicago, where
early in the season usually plays very cold. It usually plays very pitcher friendly. You’ll get six and a
half, you’ll get sevens. And then in the summer, when it’s warm and the wind’s blowing out, you’ll get thirteens and
fourteens and different things. And so, you, you don’t have
that effect in any other sport where the weather can add
so much of a robust impact on the overall score. (lightning theme sounds) – So if you didn’t check out
the first video in this series, it’s not just for beginners by the way. We talked a little bit about how it’s important to target
power hitters in MLB DFS. So I wanna dive a little bit
deeper into base stealers. (lightning theme sounds) So base stealers is
something that I would assume have a ton of value in MLB. Uh, but it, it’s probably a
little more difficult to peg, but there’s got to be those elite guys that steal a lot of bases. That usually baked into their price, like how do you kind of approach the base stealer side
of the scoring as well? – Yeah, so we uh, implemented last year a part of our projections
that take into account um, pitcher and catcher in terms
of the opposing base stealers. That has helped improve some accuracy on stolen base projections, but it’s always difficult because you know, to get
a stolen base opportunity, you not only have to get on base, but you have to get on base and not have somebody directly
on the base in front of you and so it’s difficult to project when those opportunities
are going to come up. They’re not as frequent as say, the number of plate appearances
that you’re gonna get in a given game, so when we’re talking about like small number of
opportunities for hitters as a whole where we’re talking about maybe they’ll get four, four
and a half, five opportunities. When you’re talking about base stealers, you’re talking about you know, maybe you’re hoping to get two. Like it’s, so it’s harder to
project from that perspective. Um, their price can
fluctuate when, you know, they’re going through streaks where they happen to be
getting those opportunities or they happen to be not
getting those opportunities and so um, with all the DFS sports, you wanna try to take advantage
of price opportunities. But for us because MLB is
so like stacking oriented, a lot of times, it’ll come down to do we see a team that has a
number of base stealers on it that are facing a pitcher
that is slow to home plate or a catcher that struggles
to throw out runners cause then you can get like
the double steal equity, um, when multiple guys will
kinda be willing to go at the same time and that can uh, boost upside profiles as well. – Yeah, I never really thought about the, the catcher aspect of it, but I would assume that, I mean that makes a lot of sense that that would be really big as far as like also targeting pitchers who walk batters. Hopefully that gives you some
more opportunity there too. (lightning theme sound) If you wanna learn more about how to become a profitable
Daily Fantasy Sports player and how to get better at betting, start out by hitting that subscribe button in the right hand corner
so you don’t miss anything. Have a ton of DFS courses on
demand for other sports as well so be sure and check that out. Thank you so much for watching and I’ll see you guys next time.

4 thoughts on “Daily Fantasy Sports MLB STRATEGY #1⚾️ ROSTER Construction, VALUE PLAYS Baseball, DraftKings MLB DFS

  1. ►Be sure and check out the entire MLB DFS course ON-DEMAND once you finish this video👇
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